ACM talk at Milton Keynes.
12th October 1995
Learning, communications and the Internet:
Is this the War to end all others?
If this is a war, who are the armies... and what are they thinking?
Below, I have tried to identify some of the major players in the game of Information Superhighways. In each case I have offered the Ostrich's "Head in the sand" position and the wiser "Eyes on the horizon" position. Obviosuly on the night this is fleshed out anecdotally. At the end I will illustrate the ULTRALAB view of various Information Superhighway futures by examining work available and 'coming soon' on our DTI funded Schools OnLine project and our on line MA (Ed) course.
Broadcasting content providers
Cable operators
Telecommunications
Governments and politicians
Publishing
Education
Computer companies
Software houses
Entertainment
Broadcasting content providers
Head in the sand: We have great content archives. New technology will let us distribute them and leverage our resources. Everyone needs our content and we are experts at shaping and editing it. Our future is assured.
Eyes on the horizon: The world is awash with content and technology makes everyone a producer / director / editor. Our archives may become as worthless as silent movies were after Talkies arrived. Our most valuable asset is our creative and editorial skill. Our future is uncertain.
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Cable operators
Head in the sand: We offer much better access to movies and TV choice than ever before. The video shop is dead and people will browse Internet through our set top boxes too. Everyone wants bandwidth and we sell it. Our future is assured.
Eyes on the horizon: Our industry deleivers a dissemination channle but people are hungry to put back their own content into to fibre. With technological advances bandwidth might become (almost) a Free Good and we will have very little economic clout at all. Our future is uncertain.
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Telecommunications
Head in the sand: The Information Superhighway runs down telecommunication channels. Everyone wants to get in on the act and they will all come down our wires. Our future is assured.
Eyes on the horizon: With people communicating by mobile phone, if there is no data passing down our network we might as well pour concrete down the ducts and walk away. Our future is uncertain.
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Governments and politicians
Head in the sand: Market forces will help the Information Superhighway to evolve without our help. And when it does, our country will have the world's markets at it's feet. Our future is assured.
Eyes on the horizon: Distribution and the ownership of distribution is the key to a vigorous domestic industry for learning, broadcasting, entertainment and much else. Left to its own devices the Information Superhighway will be a piecemeal patchwork of urban provision and half the economic potential of the country will be cut off from it. We need answers to questions like 'what does the public sector and public service look like on the Information Superhighway?'. Our future is uncertain.
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Publishing
Head in the sand: Books and magazines have been around forever and always will be. CD's are just electronic books and the Internet is just a vast publishing opportunity. Electonic newspapers are just like paper ones but without the print and distribution costs. Our future is assured.
Eyes on the horizon: The only current growth sector in books is adults buying for someone else (children). Newspaper and magazine sales are pitiful alongside TV viewing numbers and the reading habit, only around for a few decades anyway, is fading. We need to seize new technology to develop new products or we are facing structural and irreversible decline. Our future is uncertain.
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Education
Head in the sand: The Information Superhighway will bring us content and cut the costs of teaching. Schools can use it to tell homes what is going on and universities can run courses with substantial 'distance taught' elements for far less money. Our future is assured.
Eyes on the horizon: The Learning Industry is only in part schools and colleges. We lack economies of scale to develop quality learning materials on our own and as a nation may well become a net importer of education. If we cannot evolve our courses and pedagogy fast enough (and we never have done in the past) we will be overtaken by other learning providers. Our future is uncertain.
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Computer companies
Head in the sand: Technological convergence means that the TV is dying and the PC is replacing it. Set top boxes will be little computers too. Our future is assured.
Eyes on the horizon: The desktop PC is a dinosaur and a wide variety of boxes offering different subsets of functionality are appearing. We can make these, but they also leave us vulnerable to new entrants or manufacturers from other sectors. The Internet could see a return to big servers and minimal terminals. Our future is uncertain.
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Software houses
Head in the sand: If we define the standards and buy up all those competitors with a contribution to make we can offer buyers the perfect application / operating system / environment that does all they need and much more. Our future is assured.
Eyes on the horizon: Our software is already groaning and top heavy. We offer people facilities they don't want and can't understand. If we don't adopt component software with open arms then someone else will. OpenDoc is our only hope but it will revoutionise the industry and we need to improve our relationship and communications with small developers fast (which does not = buying them). We've forgotten to evolve authoring tools for everyone else, but now we can't develop software fast enough ourselves. Our future is uncertain.
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Entertainment
Head in the sand: Technology has always sold on entertainment. The Information Superhighway is no exception. Our future is assured.
Eyes on the horizon: We have failed to address progression - where do 15 year old games players go on to? Our cynical combination of 'great fun titles' with a thin veneer of learning has disenchanted the public who are seeking greater quality and have become critically aware. We need to respond to the development of a learning society . Our future is uncertain.
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